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Share Markets

1. Overview​

Share prediction markets in Panana Predictions allow users to trade shares representing different outcomes on a curated selection of high-quality markets. These markets reflect public sentiment and opinion trends, as share prices dynamically adjust based on demand and user speculation.

2. Market Creation​

  • Markets are curated to ensure the highest quality and relevance.
  • Topics range from politics and global events to technological advancements and financial markets.
  • Market proposals may be introduced by the community in the future.

3. How Predictions Work​

  • Users buy shares representing different outcomes in a market.
  • The price of shares fluctuates based on market sentiment and demand.
  • Users can trade their shares at any time before the market closes.
  • The market operates through an automated market maker (AMM), ensuring liquidity and fair price adjustments.

4. Market Lifecycle​

  • Market Opens: A curated market is listed for trading.
  • Trading Phase: Users can buy, sell, and trade shares freely based on evolving sentiment.
  • Market Closes: Trading stops at a predefined point before the resolution phase begins.
  • Resolution Phase: The market outcome is verified and finalized.
  • Challenge Phase: If users disagree with the resolution, they can initiate a challenge through the decentralized reputation oracle.
  • Claiming Rewards: Users holding shares of the correct outcome can claim their winnings after the challenge period ends.

5. Market Resolution​

  • The outcome is determined based on verifiable sources and predefined resolution criteria.
  • Users can challenge an outcome by paying a one-time 500 USDC fee to trigger the decentralized reputation oracle.
  • The oracle committee reviews the case and makes a final binding decision.
  • If no challenge occurs, the market resolves automatically after the predefined period.

6. Risks & Considerations​

  • Market Sentiment Fluctuation: Share prices can be highly volatile due to shifts in public opinion.
  • Smart Contract Risks: Users should be aware of potential technical vulnerabilities.
  • Liquidity Risks: While AMM ensures liquidity, extreme market imbalances may affect trading conditions.
  • Regulatory Considerations: Users must ensure compliance with their local legal frameworks.

7. Fees​

  • 500 USDC challenge fee for dispute resolution via the decentralized reputation oracle.
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Fees are not yet defined and may change at any time during the market's beta phase.

8. Example Use Case​

Example: Predicting an Election Outcome

  • Alice buys shares predicting that Candidate X will win an upcoming election.
  • Bob buys shares predicting that Candidate Y will win.
  • As new polls and debates occur, share prices shift, reflecting public sentiment.
  • Alice sells her shares at a profit before the election occurs due to strong public momentum in favor of Candidate X.
  • After the election, the market resolves in favor of the winning candidate.
  • If there is a dispute over the result, users can pay 500 USDC to escalate the resolution to the decentralized reputation oracle.

Traditional prediction markets in Panana Predictions offer a dynamic trading experience where market sentiment and opinions drive share prices, ensuring an engaging and decentralized way to forecast real-world events.